Bearish longer-term, bulls still got skin in the game though

  • EUR/GBP is attempting to correct within a 4-hour falling wedge as the price breaks up to test the resistance of the wedge. 
  • A break of the wedge’s resistance will be met by further resistance before bulls can contemplate a run back to the monthly highs in the 0.91 levels. 

From a longer-term perspective, and coupled with the recent positioning data, GBP could be on the brink of taking back control of the cross. 

For the first time since April net GBP positions are long. Meanwhile, speculators have trimmed their bets on the euro after EUR/USD hit the highest level in two years. 

The combination of positioning data skewed in the favour of the bears plus multiple failures at monthly resistance opens scope for a run back towards 0.88. 

Monthly chart

In the above chart, the first target in plain view is the confluence of the prior resistance and a 61.8{5667a53774e7bc9e4190cccc01624aae270829869c681dac1da167613dca7d05} Fibonacci of the latest monthly impulse. 

Weekly chart target

From a weekly perspective, the downside target comes in the April and May resistance of 2019.

Falling wedge and near term prospects

Meanwhile, for the near term, there is a bearish cross in the 50 and 21 moving averages on the daily chart at wedge resistance. 

A break below the support opens risk to test the prior structure lows and the base of the falling wedge.

4-HR upside prospects

However, on the four-hour time frame, the bulls are in charge while above the support and MACD heading towards positive territory.

A break of the wedge’s resistance opens the risk of a run back to test the monthly structure.





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