Bulls eye long opportunity from support structure

William Arsn

Developing story

CAD/CHF has made a bullish impulse followed by a 50{5667a53774e7bc9e4190cccc01624aae270829869c681dac1da167613dca7d05} mean reversion from which the price has held and pushed higher to form a support structure, keeping the bullish trajectory intact.

Bulls can enter at support and seek a push higher on the shorter-term frames.

The following charts display the price action and motive for a long position for a 1:2 risk to reward day trading set-up.

Note, the criteria of the trade is to manage the position on a 15-min time frame and move stop to breakeven at the earliest opportunity (explained below).

The trading strategy has a 60{5667a53774e7bc9e4190cccc01624aae270829869c681dac1da167613dca7d05} win rate, meaning risking a low percentage per trade, using breakeven targets and setting a minimum of a 1:2 risk to reward ratio are essential for the strategy’s success.

1-hour chart

15-min chart

As illustrated on the 15-min chart, the price has stabilised at a 50{5667a53774e7bc9e4190cccc01624aae270829869c681dac1da167613dca7d05} mean reversion point, bursting higher within the correction of the hourly bullish impulse and has formed a support structure.

The support structure offers an opportunity to enter long, with a stop loss below the recent lows for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.

If the price moves higher and forms fresh support from the latest resistance structure, the stop loss can be moved to breakeven for a free ride towards the target zone. 

If the price breaks below the entry, the stop loss is there as a last resort. 

Depending on the price action below support, the take profit can be moved to entry to target a breakeven exit. If the price action remains bullish within drawdown, the stop loss can remain in place as last resort. 

Live updates to follow…


As can be seen, the original trendline has been moved lower to compensate for the fact that the prior price action and break over was not a fake-out. 

The price has deteriorated below the entry and support structure. 

If the price fails to hold the trendline support and closes below, the set-up will be nullified and the target can be brought to entry on the hope that the trade will result in a breakeven.

If the price fails to move back to the entry, in the near future, it is highly likely that the trade will result in a small loss (the strategy caters for 40{5667a53774e7bc9e4190cccc01624aae270829869c681dac1da167613dca7d05} of losing and breakeven trades)


So far, the price has held the trendline support:

The target remains in place for a 1:2 risk to reward.


Position closed for breakeven due to too much bearish divergence on the MACD.

The market can be monitored again for re-entry IF the conditions and price action form bullish structure. 

At this juncture, the old support structure is expected to act as new resistance and best practise is to limit trading losses and manage risk. 

Monitoring for long entry

As explained, the market can be monitored again for re-entry IF the conditions and price action form bullish structure. 

The following presents a possible outcome IF the price holds in the bullish territory, (price above 21 moving average and MACD above zero):




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